The Probability of Prophecy

“Prove to me God exists!”

When that is said to us on a podcast, my first thought is, “Prove to me God DOESN’T exist! That is a way bigger challenge!” Oftentimes, we’ll point out sone truths, like the fact that DNA molecules contain all the genetic instructions to form a life. Then we’ll ask, “How can genetic instructions about how to create life come by chance and not from God? How can physical atoms and molecules create on their own human consciousness, which has no physical existence?”

Also, animals have no ability to reason the morality of what they do, but we humans have a conscience, a moral compass. Why is that? Is not a conscience evidence of the morality and holiness of God?

No nation ever existed in which all the people were all natural atheists. No nation ever said, “God? What’s a God? It never occurred to us that God could exist!” They always believed in something even if that something wasn’t the one, true God.

Why?

Because Rom. 1 explains we all instinctively know God exists just as we know that all motion has a beginning, that there is no effect without a cause, and that order does not spring from chaos or chance. Every life is born. Every life dies. So from whence came our beginning? We have always known: “In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth” (Gen 1:1)

It is an abandonment of logic and reason to reject the idea of God.

Another comment we periodically get is, “Prove to me the Bible is the Word of God!”

My favorite answer to that question is the probability of prophecy.

A favorite book of mine (and David Reid’s) is called “Science Speaks” by Peter Stoner, originally published, I think, in 1944. You can read the book online for free.

Peter Stoner was the Chairman of the Departments of Mathematics and Astronomy at Pasadena City College until 1953. He was Chairman of the science division, Westmont College, 1953-57; Professor Emeritus of Science, Westmont College; Professor Emeritus of Mathematics and Astronomy, Pasadena City College.

Science in the Bible

Peter Stoner and his students together tried, while using the proper scientific method, to calculate the statistical probability of the fulfillment of OT prophesies, especially with Christ.

What’s the probability that all these different writers in the OT could write all these different predictions and they would all come true in one man?

The manuscript for “Science Speaks” was also carefully reviewed by a committee of the American Scientific Affiliation members and by the Executive Council of the same group, and they found, generally, the book and the methods used to be dependable and accurate in regard to the scientific material presented. The mathematical analysis in the book was, indeed, based upon the principles of probability which were thoroughly sound, and that Professor Stoner applied those principles in a proper and convincing way.

Everything I’m about to share, I presented in a message about a month ago.

Prophecy – Tyre

For example, let’s look at Tyre in Ezek. 26:

Eze 26:3 Therefore thus saith the Lord GOD; Behold, I am against thee, O Tyrus, and will cause many nations to come up against thee, as the sea causeth his waves to come up. Eze 26:4 And they shall destroy the walls of Tyrus, and break down her towers: I will also scrape her dust from her, and make her like the top of a rock. Eze 26:5 It shall be a place for the spreading of nets in the midst of the sea: for I have spoken it, saith the Lord GOD: and it shall become a spoil to the nations. Eze 26:6 And her daughters which are in the field shall be slain by the sword; and they shall know that I am the LORD. Eze 26:7 For thus saith the Lord GOD; Behold, I will bring upon Tyrus Nebuchadrezzar king of Babylon, a king of kings, from the north, with horses, and with chariots, and with horsemen, and companies, and much people. Eze 26:8 He shall slay with the sword thy daughters in the field: and he shall make a fort against thee, and cast a mount against thee, and lift up the buckler against thee. Eze 26:9 And he shall set engines of war against thy walls, and with his axes he shall break down thy towers. Eze 26:10 By reason of the abundance of his horses their dust shall cover thee: thy walls shall shake at the noise of the horsemen, and of the wheels, and of the chariots, when he shall enter into thy gates, as men enter into a city wherein is made a breach. Eze 26:11 With the hoofs of his horses shall he tread down all thy streets: he shall slay thy people by the sword, and thy strong garrisons shall go down to the ground. Eze 26:12 And they shall make a spoil of thy riches, and make a prey of thy merchandise: and they shall break down thy walls, and destroy thy pleasant houses: and they shall lay thy stones and thy timber and thy dust in the midst of the water. Eze 26:13 And I will cause the noise of thy songs to cease; and the sound of thy harps shall be no more heard. Eze 26:14 And I will make thee like the top of a rock: thou shalt be a place to spread nets upon; thou shalt be built no more: for I the LORD have spoken it, saith the Lord GOD. Eze 26:15 Thus saith the Lord GOD to Tyrus; Shall not the isles shake at the sound of thy fall, when the wounded cry, when the slaughter is made in the midst of thee? Eze 26:16 Then all the princes of the sea shall come down from their thrones, and lay away their robes, and put off their broidered garments: they shall clothe themselves with trembling; they shall sit upon the ground, and shall tremble at every moment, and be astonished at thee.

Stoner in his book would make the point that this prophecy predicts the destruction of Tyre and states seven definite things that would take place:

1. Nebuchadnezzar shall take the city of Tyre.
2. Other nations are to participate in the fulfillment of the prophecy.
3. The city is to be made flat like the top of a rock.
4. It is to become a place for spreading of nets.
5. Its stones and timber are to be laid in the sea.
6. Other cities are to fear greatly at the fall of Tyre.
7. The old city of Tyre shall never be rebuilt.

Tyre was a city on the northern coast of Palestine inhabited by the Phoenicians. Extremely wealthy. Well protected. A strong maritime people. Greatly feared. (The king of Tyre supplied timbers of Solomon in the building of the temple.) And, back in the day, it was near impossible to conquer that city on that island. That didn’t stop Nebuchadnezzar. In 586 B.C., he laid siege to the city of Tyre. This lasted for 13 years; until he finally took the city in 573 B.C., but he found out that the Phoenicians snuck out all the valuables and treasures, and Nebuchadnezzar got nothing. So he leveled the city, and he went back to Babylon.

Thus, the first item of the prophecy was fulfilled: (1) Nebuchadnezzar shall take the city of Tyre.

After 70 years (Isa. 23:17), Tyre was rebuilt but never fully restored to its former glory and greatness. For years the city of Tyre stayed very much as it was.

Then, Alexander the Great came on the scene and started his global conquest. In 332 B.C., when Alexander reached Tyre, just like Nebuchadnezzar, he couldn’t take the city. So he captured all the coastal cities, and he took control of their fleets, but even with these combined fleets he still could not take Tyre. Alexander finally built a giant causeway from the mainland to the island of Tyre using building materials from old Tyre and digging up all the soil around the island. After seven months, by a combined attack of land forces marching in over the causeway, and the fleets of the conquered cities, he finally took Tyre.

Thus, items 2,3, and 5 of the prophecy were fulfilled: (2) Other nations are to participate in the fulfillment of the prophecy. (3) The city is to be made flat like the top of a rock. (5) Its stones and timber are to be laid in the sea.

Other neighboring cities were so frightened by the conquest of Tyre that they opened their gates to Alexander without opposition and fulfilled another item: (6) Other cities are to fear greatly at the fall of Tyre.

Today visitors at the old city of Tyre find it is a very popular place for fisherman; they are spreading their nets on this very spot. Thus prediction 4 has been completely fulfilled: (4) It is to become a place for spreading of nets.

The great freshwater springs of Raselain are at the site of what was the mainland city of Tyre, which had no doubt supplied the city with an abundance of fresh water. These springs are still there, still flowing, but the water now runs into the sea. The flow of these springs was measured by an engineer – found to be about 10,000,000 gallons daily. That’s enough free water for a large modern city, yet it has never been rebuilt. Thus, item 7 of the prophecy has stood true for more than 2,500 years: (7) The old city of Tyre shall never be rebuilt.

So every prophecy by Ezekiel related to the city of Tyre has been completely fulfilled. Stoner would say, basically, okay, let’s try to evaluate the evidence of inspiration by the fulfillment of this prophecy. He said, “My groups of college students were asked to imagine that Ezekiel was writing from his own human knowledge, and then to give an estimate of the following:

1. Ezekiel had one chance in how many of knowing, or being able to predict, that Nebuchadnezzar would take the city of Tyre? Since Nebuchadnezzar was conquering many cities, and since Tyre was besieged four years after the prophecy was made, it must have been a reasonable thing to predict. Nebuchadnezzar might have tried to take Tyre and failed, or he might have succeeded, or never tried. An estimate of one in three was chosen.

2. What chance did Ezekiel have of knowing that Nebuchadnezzar would, in his conquering of Tyre, not completely fulfill the prophecy of destruction, but other nations would later come in and complete the fulfillment? The indications in the time of Ezekiel certainly were that when Nebuchadnezzar took a city he was quite capable of completing the destruction himself, so the estimate was placed at one in five.

3. What chance did Ezekiel have of knowing that Tyre would be made flat like the top of a rock, after it was conquered? How many cities have been made flat like the top of a rock after being conquered? The sites of nearly all ancient cities are marked by mounds of accumulated debris. I do not know of any other city where the ruins have been so completely cleared away, so the estimate of one in five hundred was chosen.

4. What chance did Ezekiel have of knowing that after the city had been completely cleared away it would become a popular place for fishermen? There is really no basis on which to make an estimate. However, taking this site merely as a little stretch of coast, and considering all sections of coasts that size, an estimate of one in ten was chosen.

5. What chance did Ezekiel have of knowing that when Tyre was made flat, its building material, and even its dust, was to be laid in the sea? Since the site was to be cleared, the debris had to be disposed of, but it would have been far more likely to have used this material in constructing the buildings of nearby cities, so the estimate was given as one in ten.

6. What chance was there of other cities opening their gates to the conqueror of Tyre without resistance? The estimate was given as one in five.

7. What was the chance that Tyre, after being conquered by Alexander the Great, should never be rebuilt? Nearly all old cities which had great natural advantages were at some time rebuilt. Tyre is in an excellent location and has an abundant supply of fresh water, so valuable in this land. The estimate chosen for this part of the prophecy was one in twenty.

Stoner says, “Having been given these estimates by my students for the probability of the fulfillment of each part of the prophecy, we shall get an estimate of the probability of the fulfillment of the whole prophecy by multiplying all of the estimates together. The chance then of Ezekiel writing this prophecy from his own knowledge, and having it all come true, is 1 in 3 x 5 x 500 x 10 x 10 x 5 x 20. This is 1 in 75,000,000. This can be abbreviated as 1 in 7.5 x 10⁷. The exponent 7 indicates the number of ciphers (digits – or zeros) that are to follow the 7.5. If Ezekiel had looked at Tyre in his day and had made these seven predictions in human wisdom, these estimates mean that there would have been only one chance in 75,000,000 of their all coming true. They all came true down to the most minute detail.”

Prophecies about Christ

We’re going to look at only eight prophecies about Christ.

1. “But thou, Bethlehem Ephratah, though thou be little among the thousands of Judah, yet out of thee shall he come forth unto me that is to be ruler in Israel; whose goings forth have been from of old, from everlasting” (Micah 5:2).

Stoner said,“This prophecy predicts that Christ is to be born in Bethlehem. Since this is the first prophecy to be considered, our question is: One man in how many, the world over, has been born in Bethlehem? The best estimate which we can make of this comes from the attempt to find out the average population of Bethlehem, from Micah down to the present time, and divide it by the average population of the earth during the same period. One member of the class was an assistant in the library so he was assigned to get this information. He reported at the next meeting that the best determination of the ratio that he could determine was one to 280,000. Since the probable population of the earth has averaged less than two billion, the population of Bethlehem has averaged less than 7,150. Our answer may be expressed in the form that one man in 7,150/2,000,000,000 or one man in 2.8 x 10⁵ was born in Bethlehem.”

2. “Behold, I will send my messenger, and he shall prepare the way before me” (Mal. 3:1).

Stoner says, “Our question here is: Of the men who have been born in Bethlehem, one man in how many has had a forerunner to prepare his way? John the Baptist, of course, was the forerunner of Christ. But since there appears to be no material difference between the people born in Bethlehem and those born any other place in the world, the question can just as well be general: One man in how many, the world over, has had a forerunner to prepare his way? The students said that the prophecy apparently referred to a special messenger of God, whose one duty was to prepare the way for the work of Christ, so there is a further restriction added. The students finally agreed on one in 1,000 as being extremely conservative. Most of the members thought the estimate should be much larger. We will use the estimate as 1 in 10³.”

3. “Rejoice greatly, O daughter of Zion; shout, O daughter of Jerusalem: behold, thy King cometh unto thee: he is just, and having salvation: lowly, and riding upon … a colt the foal of an ass” (Zech. 9:9).

Stoner says, “Our question then is: One man in how many, who was born in Bethlehem and had a forerunner, did enter Jerusalem as a king riding on a colt the foal of an ass? This becomes so restrictive that we should consider an equivalent question: One man in how many, who has entered Jerusalem as a ruler, has entered riding on a colt the foal of an ass? The students said that this was a very hard thing to place an estimate on. They knew of no one but Christ who had so entered. The students thought that at least in more modern times any one entering Jerusalem as a king would use a more dignified means of transportation. They agreed to place an estimate of 1 in 10⁴. We will use 1 in 10².”

4. “And one shall say unto him, What are these wounds in thine hands? Then he shall answer, Those with which I was wounded in the house of my friends“(Zech. 13:6).

Stoner says, “Christ was betrayed by Judas, one of His disciples, causing Him to be put to death, wounds being made in His hands. There seems to be no relation between the fulfillment of this prophecy and those which we have previously considered. We may then ask the question: One man in how many, the world over, has been betrayed by a friend, and that betrayal has resulted in his being wounded in his hands? The students said that it was very rare to be betrayed by a friend, and still rarer for the betrayal to involve wounding in the hands. One in 1,000 was finally agreed upon, though most of the students would have preferred a larger number. So we will use 1 in 10³.”

5. “And I said unto them, If ye think good, give me my price; and if not, forbear. So they weighed for my price thirty pieces of silver” (Zech. 11:12).

Stoner says, “The question here is very simple: Of the people who have been betrayed, one in how many has been betrayed for exactly thirty pieces of silver? The students thought this would be extremely rare and set their estimate as one in 10,000, or 1 in 10⁴. We will use 1 in 10³.”

6. “And the Lord said unto me, Cast it unto the potter: a goodly price that I was prized at of them. And I took the thirty pieces of silver, and cast them to the potter in the house of the Lord” (Zech. 11:13).

Stoner says, “This is extremely specific. All thirty pieces of silver are not to be returned. They are to be cast down in the house of the Lord, and they are to go to the potter. You will recall that Judas in remorse tried to return the thirty pieces of silver, but the chief priest would not accept them. So Judas threw them down on the floor of the temple and went and hanged himself. The chief priest then took the money and bought a field of the potter to bury strangers in. Our question is: One man in how many, after receiving a bribe for the betrayal of a friend, had returned the money, had it refused, had thrown it on the floor in the house of the Lord, and then had it used to purchase a field from the potter? The students said they doubted if there has ever been another incident involving all of these items, but they agreed on an estimate of one in 100,000. They were very sure that this was conservative. So we use the estimate as 1 in 10⁵.”

7. “He was oppressed, and he was afflicted, yet he opened not his mouth: he is brought as a lamb to the slaughter, and as a sheep before her shearers is dumb, so he openeth not his mouth” (Isa. 53:7).

Stoner says, “One man in how many, after fulfilling the above prophecies, when he is oppressed and afflicted and is on trial for his life, though innocent, will make no defense for himself? Again, my students said they did not know this had ever happened in any case other than Christ’s. At least it is extremely rare, so they placed their estimate as one in 10,000 or 1 in 10⁴. We will use 1 in 10³.”

And finally 8. “For dogs have compassed me: the assembly of the wicked have inclosed me: they pierced my hands and my feet” (Ps. 22:16).

Stoner says, “The Jews are still looking for the coming of Christ; in fact, He might have come any time after these prophecies were written up to the present time, or even on into the future. So our question is: One man in how many, from the time of David on, has been crucified? After studying the methods of execution down through the ages and their frequency, the students agreed to estimate this probability at one in 10,000 or 1 in 10⁴, which we will use.”

Conclusion

“If these estimates are considered fair, one man in how many men, the world over, will fulfill all eight prophecies? This question can be answered by applying our principles of probability. In other words, by multiplying all of our estimates together, or 1 in 2.8 x 10⁵ x 10³ x 10² x 10³ x 10⁵ x 10³ x 10⁴. This gives 1 in 2.8 x 10²⁸, where 28 means that we have 28 ciphers following the 2.8. Let us simplify and reduce the number by calling it 1 in 10²⁸.

Written out this number is 1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.” That is an Octillion.

“This is the answer to the question: One man in how many men has fulfilled these eight prophecies? But we are really concerned with the answer to the question: (SS)What is the chance that any man might have lived from the day of these prophecies down to the present time and have fulfilled all of the eight prophecies? We can answer this question by dividing our 10²⁸ by the total number of people who have lived since the time of these prophecies. The best information available indicates the number to be about 88 billion or 8.8 x 10¹⁰.

“To simplify the computation let us call the number 10¹¹. By dividing these two numbers we find that the chance that any man might have lived down to the present time and fulfilled all eight prophecies is 1 in 10¹⁷.” That is a Quadrillion.

Stoner adds, “Editor’s note: It is probable that 88 billion or 8.8 x 10¹⁰ assumes a growth rate for the earth’s population which is much too small – that most of the people who have ever lived are still alive today – suggesting that this number may be too large by a factor of ten. If so, this will affect the final result by the same factor of ten; ten times fewer total people who might have fulfilled these prophecies means only one tenth the chance that one of them might have done it by accident. Our number would become 10¹⁸ instead of 10¹⁷. The number used in this book is very conservative.”

And that number is a Quintillion.

Illustration

Texas is 268,581 square miles. The width is 773 miles, and the length is 790. There’s the story of the Texan in Russia telling a Russian man, bragging that Texas is so big “you can get in a train and go for seven days and still be in Texas.” The Russian said, “I know what you mean. We have the same problem with our trains.”

Stoner explains, “Suppose that we take one hundred quadrillion silver dollars and lay them on the face of Texas. They will cover all of the state up to your knees, roughly two feet deep. Now mark one of these silver dollars with a big check mark and stir the whole mass thoroughly, all over the state. Blindfold a man and tell him that he can travel as far as he wishes, but he must pick up one silver dollar and say that this is the right one. What chance would he have of getting the right one? Just the same chance that the prophets would have had of writing these eight prophecies and having them all come true in any one man, from their day to the present time, providing they wrote using their own wisdom.

“Now these prophecies were either given by inspiration of God or the prophets just wrote them as they thought they should be. In such a case the prophets had just one chance in one hundred quadrillion of having them come true in any man, but they all came true in Christ. He said, Sometimes we weigh our chances in the business world, and say if an investment has nine chances in ten of being profitable, and only one chance in ten of being a failure, it is safe enough for us to make the investment. Whoever heard of an investment that had only one chance in 10¹⁷ of failure? The business world has no conception of such an investment. Yet we are offered this investment by God. By the acceptance of Jesus Christ as our Savior we know, from only these eight prophecies which lack only 1 chance in one hundred quadrillion of being an absolute proof, that that investment will yield the wonderful dividend of eternal life with Christ. Can anyone be so unreasonable as to reject Jesus Christ and pin his hope of eternal life on such a slim chance as finding the right silver dollar among this great mass, covering the whole state of Texas two feet deep? It does not seem possible, yet every man who rejects Christ is doing just that.

“Suppose we add eight more prophecies to our list and assume that their chance of fulfillment is the same as the eight just considered. The chance that one man would fulfill all sixteen is 1 x 10²⁸ x 10¹⁷ or 1 in 10⁴⁵. “

1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Look at that number! That is a Quattuordecillion.

“Let us try to visualize this as we did before. Take this number of silver dollars. If you make these into a solid ball, you will have a great sphere with a center at the earth, and extending in all directions more than 30 times as far as from the earth to the sun. (If a train had started from the earth at the time the Declaration of Independence was signed, and had traveled steadily toward the sun at the rate of sixty miles per hour, day and night, it would be about reaching its destination today. But remember that our ball of silver dollars extends thirty times that far in all directions.) If you can imagine the marking of one silver dollar, and then thoroughly stirring it into this great ball, and blindfolding a man and telling him to pick out one dollar, and expect it to be the marked one, you have somewhat of a picture of how absolutely the fulfillment of sixteen prophecies referring to Jesus Christ proves both that He is the Son of God and that our Bible is inspired. Certainly, God directed the writing of His Word.

“In order to extend this consideration beyond all bounds of human comprehension, let us consider forty-eight prophecies, similar in their human chance of fulfillment to the eight which we originally considered, using a much more conservative number, 1 in 10²¹. Applying the same principle of probability used so far, we find the chance that any one man fulfilled all forty-eight prophecies to be 1 in 10¹⁵⁷.” That’s 157 zeros!

10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Look at that number!!! There is no name for a number that large!

Stoner write, “Let us try to visualize it. The silver dollar, which we have been using, is entirely too large. We must select a smaller object. The electron is about as small an object as we know of. It is so small that it will take 2.5 x 10¹⁵ of them laid side by side to make a line, single file, one inch long. If we were going to count the electrons in this line one inch long, and counted 250 each minute, and if we counted day and night, it would take us 19,000,000 years to count just the one-inch line of electrons. If we had a cubic inch of these electrons and we tried to count them, it would take us 1.2 x 10³⁸ years (2 x 10²⁸ times the 6 billion years back to the creation of the solar system).

“With this introduction, let us go back to our chance of 1 in 10¹⁵⁷. Let us suppose that we are taking this number of electrons, marking one, and thoroughly stirring it into the whole mass, then blindfolding a man and letting him try to find the right one. What chance has he of finding the right one? What kind of a pile will this number of electrons make? They make an inconceivably large volume.

“The distance from our system of stars, or galaxy, to the next nearest one is nearly 1,500,000 light-years; that is the distance that light will travel in 1,500,000 years going 186,000 miles each and every second. Space, by some authorities, is supposed to extend in all directions to the distance, not of 1,500,000 light-years. but more than 4,000 times that far or 6,000,000,000 light-years. Let us make a solid ball of electrons, extending in all directions from the earth to the distance of six billion light-years. Have we used up our 10¹⁵⁷ electrons? No, we have made such a small hole in the mass that we cannot see it. We can make this solid ball of electrons, extending in all directions to the distance of six billion light-years 6 x 10²⁸ times. Now, one of these electrons was marked and thoroughly stirred into the whole mass; blindfold your man and ask him to find the marked electron.

“No man could in any way look over this mass of electrons, blindfolded or not blindfolded, and pick out any one electron, let alone the one that had been marked. (The electron, in fact, is so small that it cannot be seen with powerful microscope.) To the extent, then, that we know this blindfolded man cannot pick out the marked electron, we know that the Bible is inspired. This is not merely evidence. It is proof of the Bible’s inspiration by God–proof so definite that the universe is not large enough to hold the evidence. Some will say that our estimates of the probability of the fulfillment of these prophecies are too large and the numbers should be reduced. Ask a man to submit his own estimates, and if they are smaller than these we have used, we shall add a few more prophecies to be evaluated and this same number will be reestablished or perhaps exceeded.

“Our Bible students claim that there are more than three hundred prophecies dealing with Christ’s first advent. If this number is correct, and it no doubt is, you could set your estimates ridiculously low on the whole three hundred prophecies and still obtain tremendous evidence of inspiration.

“For example, you may place all of your estimates at one in four. You may say that one man in four has been born in Bethlehem: that one of these children in four was taken to Egypt, to avoid slaughter; that one in four of these came back and made his home in Nazareth; that one in four of these was a carpenter; that one in four of these was betrayed for thirty pieces of silver; that one in four of these has been crucified on a cross; that one in four was then buried in a rich man’s tomb; yes, even that one in four rose from the dead on the third day; and so on for all of the three hundred prophecies and from them I will build a number much larger than the one we obtained from the forty-eight prophecies.

“Any man who rejects Christ as the Son of God is rejecting a fact proved perhaps more absolutely than any other fact in the world.”